Dollar Debt in FX Swaps and Forwards: Huge, Missing and Growing Global Development Policy Center

A foreign currency swap is an agreement between two foreign parties to swap interest payments on a loan made in one currency for interest payments on a loan made in another currency. A currency swap involves two parties that exchange a notional principal with one another in order to gain exposure to a desired currency. Following the initial notional exchange, periodic cash flows are exchanged in the appropriate currency.

  1. The parties enter into a foreign exchange swap today with a maturity of six months.
  2. At end-June 2022, dealer banks had $52 trillion in outstanding dollar positions with customers.
  3. They also provide a way for a company to hedge (or protect against) risks it may face due to fluctuations in foreign exchange.
  4. Triangulating between the various sources also allows a rough cross-check of the approximations made.

Figures for internationally active banks’ net on-balance sheet open currency positions are derived from the BIS international banking statistics. Embedded in the foreign exchange (FX) market is huge, unseen dollar borrowing. In an FX swap, for instance, a Dutch pension fund or Japanese insurer borrows dollars and lends euro or yen in the “spot leg”, and later repays the dollars and receives euro or yen in the “forward leg”. The $80 trillion-plus in outstanding obligations to pay US dollars in FX swaps/forwards and currency swaps, mostly very short-term, exceeds the stocks of dollar Treasury bills, repo and commercial paper combined. The churn of deals approached $5 trillion per day in April 2022, two thirds of daily global FX turnover.

Whereas dollar-lending central banks typically have a long FX position, dollar-borrowing central banks can hold reserves while also avoiding a long FX position. For their part, several large European banking systems also draw dollars from the FX swap market to fund their international dollar positions (top centre panel). Pre-GFC, German, Dutch, UK and Swiss banks, in particular, had funded their growing dollar books via interbank loans (blue lines) and FX swaps (shaded area).

This is surprising, given that the two instruments are roughly equivalent from an economic perspective. 8 Only 1% of FX transactions are centrally cleared (Wooldridge (2017)), and most of those remain limited to non-deliverable forwards (McCauley and Shu (2016)). At end-2007, before interest rate swaps were centrally shooting star forex cleared, the inter-dealer share of such positions stood at almost 40%. These three sources, together with BIS data on international debt securities and global trade, provide a sense of the instruments’ use. Triangulating between the various sources also allows a rough cross-check of the approximations made.

The Basics of Currency Swaps

This most likely reflected a reduction in hedging needs, as both trade and asset prices collapsed. Currency swaps are important financial instruments used by banks, investors, and multinational corporations. Currency swaps were originally done to get around exchange controls, governmental limitations on the purchase and/or sale of currencies.

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In other words, two companies can swap their debt amounts, paying the interest in dollars other than their own. They offer a company access to a loan in a foreign currency that can be less expensive than when obtained through a local bank. They also provide a way for a company to hedge (or protect against) risks it may face due to fluctuations in foreign exchange. In addition, some institutions use currency swaps to reduce exposure to anticipated fluctuations in exchange rates.

Now assume that the agent decided to avoid the FX risk by keeping the cash in domestic currency and financing the foreign security in the foreign repo market (case 3). That is, the agent finances the security at purchase by immediately selling it while committing to buy it forward at an agreed price. (Here we abstract from the haircut so that the security is altogether self-financing.) Current accounting principles require that this be reported on a gross basis, so that the balance sheet doubles in size.

Or, one party to the agreement may exchange a fixed rate interest payment for the floating rate interest payment of the other party. A swap agreement may also involve the exchange of the floating rate interest payments of both parties. Rather than borrowing real at 10%, Company A will have to satisfy the 5% interest rate payments incurred by Company B under its agreement with the Brazilian banks. Company A has effectively managed to replace a 10% loan with a 5% loan. Similarly, Company B no longer has to borrow funds from American institutions at 9%, but realizes the 4% borrowing cost incurred by its swap counterparty. Under this scenario, Company B actually managed to reduce its cost of debt by more than half.

Missing dollar debt: mostly outside the United States

Because, not only do they get to repay some of their loan for doing essentially nothing, they will also keep more of their environment intact. It also may be more expensive to borrow in the U.S. than https://g-markets.net/ it is in another country, or vice versa. In either circumstance, the domestic company has a competitive advantage in taking out loans from its home country because its cost of capital is lower.

The fourth delves into banks’ role, tracing banking systems’ post-GFC reliance on the market for funding. Focusing on the dominant dollar segment, we estimate that non-bank borrowers outside the United States have very large off-balance sheet dollar obligations in FX forwards and currency swaps. They are of a size similar to, and probably exceeding, the $10.7 trillion of on-balance sheet debt.

Debt/equity swaps of this nature are very common tools for rescuing countries in debt. With mounting global macroeconomic concerns tied to rising interest rates and inflation, this isn’t easy news to hear. Many investors who are already taking bearish positions may look to such data as the latest reason to sell. There’s a potential $80 trillion of capital that’s being held in shadow banks and non-US banks, essentially hidden from the ledgers of the BIS. This is a staggering amount of money, with some estimates putting the amount at roughly 14% of all financial assets globally.

Currency swaps are widely used by multinational corporations and financial institutions to manage their foreign exchange exposure. Like any financial instrument, currency swaps possess several limitations and risks. Both parties can pay a fixed or floating rate, or one party may pay a floating rate while the other pays a fixed rate.

What is a Debt Swap?

Credit default swaps, for example, proved to be part of the confluence of circumstances which led to the 2008 financial crisis. Financial regulators proposed a tightening on debt swaps and similar products with the goal of preventing similar problems in the future while still allowing people to trade financial products. In a debt/equity or equity/debt swap, shareholders or creditors of a corporation can be provided with an incentive to trade their equity for debt such as bonds, or to trade their debt for equity such as stocks.